Poll: National has votes to govern alone

Poll: National has votes to govern aloneNational has hit its highest rating – 51.3 per cent – in a Herald -DigiPoll survey.
Translated to votes, that would mean the party could govern alone.
Labour has slipped to 13.2 points behind National, increasing last month's…
[NZ Politics]

Gee I wonder what happened to that resurgence in the polls?

Labour are in serious trouble and so are their friends the Greens. They are losing big time in Auckland and that is hurting them nationwide.

The gap is now 13 points, well above the margin of error. Labour's hurt has but only just statreted as mounting criticism of the Electoral Finance Bill gets publiscised.

There will be more protestor coverage on the TV tonight, more people will be aware of the provisions of the bill.

Worse for Labour is the sheer indifference of the middle and left ground in the electorate. When the chips are down they just don't vote no matter how hard the union organisers try to bully and cajol their workers into voting. When it looks bad for the left they just don't vote.

That 13 point lead is probably actually a 22 point lead like it is in Auckland, which also means that the 22 point lead in Auckland is probably a good deal bigger than that.

There is also the self fulfilling prophesy of polls, people don't like backing losers and the more the polls show National as winners and Labour as losers the more the chance that labour's core support and the Greens' as well will simply stay home and not bother.

National could ram home the advantage and promise three simply things and at the same time grab 60% of the vote. those three simple things are these;

  1. Repeal Section 59
  2. Hold a binding referendum on the future of MMP within 6 months of being elected
  3. Repeal the Electoral Finance Bill

Those three simple things will electorally kill Labour for a considerable time.

?Jeanette Fitzsimons thinks that the drop in the Green vote is because of the squeeze between the two big parties, she is wrong, their electoral fate is being decided because of their support for the Electoral Finance Bill.