Matt McCarten: Votes matter, but it's coalition partners who will count in 2008

Matt McCarten: Votes matter, but it's coalition partners who will count in 2008Despite the spin from party spokespersons, it is a great truism that you can normally predict an election a year out. Consistent polls over the past year have shown that National holds a healthy lead over Labour. You can be pretty… [NZ Politics]

Matt McCarten reckons that National can't govern because they won't have a coalition partner. he is right and wrong at the same time.

The next election will show Labour especially, and National generally that Kiwi's are fed up with the foibles of MMP, they are sick to the back teeth of tails wagging dogs and they will show it in catastrophic fashion. Catastrophic for the minor parties with the exception of the Maori Party and perhaps ACT if Rodney can pull through.

Winston First is particularly exposed after Winston lost Tauranga and with no prospect of ever winning it back and the likely-hood that his sorry assed excuse of a party will fail to reach 5%. Not only that but Winston First is the only party that daily records its demise in the Death notices as their members pop their clogs. To make matters worse, Winston has alienated a large segment of his core constituency by supporting the Electoral Finance Bill.

The Greens have never had the legitimacy of ever winning an electorate seat and thus will be consigned to the dustbin.

We live in interesting times, John Key could make it more interesting by promising a binding referendum on the future of MMP. The people mistakenly believe that they were promised such a thing, and also mistakenly believe that successive governmens have not pursued such a path because they just aren't interested i, like the proverbial turkey, in voting for an early Christmas. John Key should play to that mistaken belief and deliver to desperate Kiwi's captured by single issue parties and single issue MP's.

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