Aud analyses the stats

Voters ponder coalition choices (+graphics) – 03 Mar 2008 – Politics: New Zealand Political News, Analysis and Comment including 2008 election coverage – NZ Herald

Audrey Young goes through the stats from the Herald’s latest poll and non of it is good for Labour or for the Greens.

Auckland v Rest of NZ: There is very little difference between the polling for National and Labour overall and that within Auckland. In total polling the gap between the two main parties is 18 points. Among Aucklanders polled, the gap was 18.5 points, and for the rest of New Zealand, National polled a little less, putting the gap at 17.7 points.

The Greens are disproportionately less popular in Auckland, polling 3.4 per cent there, compared with 4.4 per cent overall.

Gender: The poll shows Labour and National maintaining their gender bias – men for National and women for Labour – but much less so for Labour than a month ago.

Across both genders National polled 54.5 per cent, but 56.9 per cent of men supported National compared with 52.1 per cent women.

Labour’s overall rating was 36.5 per cent, but 39.9 per cent of women supported Labour and 33.4 per cent of men.

In the January DigiPoll survey the difference was more marked: 45.5 per cent of women supported Labour compared to 38.7 per cent overall.

Age: Labour has a major deficit of support among the elderly when the DigiPoll party vote polling is distributed through seven age groups. The elderly support is going disproportionately to National and New Zealand First

Labour used to rely on the female vote but can no longer, they used to rely on the Maori vote but can no longer and they used to reply on the Greens holding up and that is very iffy right now. Auckland for sure is a goner for them and it looks increasingly like blood on the caucus room floor come the election. Labour on current polling could be reduced to just 20 electorate seats with the balance made up from the list. If I was in the Labour caucus right now a list position only wouldn’t be a fun place to be.

With all the major polls now showing at least a 17 point gap and as much as 23 points there is no more wriggle room for the Prime Minister. The plotters are plotting. Clark cannot point to one single poll and hang her hat on that one as providing a good indication of a turn around. They are all looking bad it is only the degree. Goff and Jones and Cullen will be spending a great deal of time with each other right now. If Clark trots off overseas chances are she will be met on her return with a fait accompli at the airport with some patsy being the one to deliver the bad news.

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