Hillary's Math Problem

Hillary?s Mathematical Dilemma ? The American, A Magazine of Ideas

Back in March I predicted that Hillary couldn’t possibly win. Almost every pundit except the ones I refer to were predicting that she could indeed win.

Now today another pundit explains Hillary’s math problem. Someone high up in the DNC needs to take the witch aside and tell her she can’t win, because she can’t.

Hillary Clinton can change her message, change her campaign manager, even change her hairstyle?but she can?t change the delegate math that makes it almost impossible for her to win the Democratic presidential nomination.

It is impossible for her to win. Let’s examine why. As of yesterday the state of play was,

Total delegates = 4048 (you need 2025 to win the nomination) made up of 80% primaries and caucuses (3255) and 20% (793) by Super delegates.

Obama = 1735 delegates, includes committed super delegates
Clinton = 1601 delegates, includes committed super delegates

Remaining delegates are about 400 and uncommitted superdelegates is sitting at about 250. Currently Obama and Hillary are almost tied in superdelegates.

North Carolina went to Obama giving him another 63 delegates and Indiana went to Hillary giving her 38 delegates.

So as of tonight Obama has 1832 and Hillary 1691. Remaining States are;
West Virginia (C) 28 delegates
Kentucky (C) 51 delegates
Oregon (O) 52 delegates
Puerto Rico (C) 55 delegates
Montana (O) 16 delegates
South Dakota (O) 9 delegates

At the end of all those based on the predicted fall of the states the numbers will be Obama 1935 and Clinton 1801. Obama only needs about 30% of the remaining super delegates and the if Obama maintains his lead they are likely to increasingly declare for Obama.

Even in the unlikely event that Clinton has won Indiana by 10% (she didn’t), a narrow win in North Carolina (she lost by miles), a generous 70-30 win in Kentucky, again a generous, very generous win of 10 points in Oregon. Now all of that has to occur and we already know she won Indiana by not much and lost North Dakota by heaps, then Hillary would have cut into Obama’s lead by 50 but still would trail by 80-90. If she then wins all of the remain states she will still trail by 60-70 delegates.

The only way she could now win would be if the majority of the super delegates move in behind her.

Losing North Carolina and only narrowly winning in Indiana she has pretty much doomed herself. Again I discussed this in March. Clinton simply cannot do math.

Short of a major Obama scandal she can’t possibly win.

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