Political stockmarket open

A Virtual Political Stock market has opened today. It is based on a price system analysis first devised by the Austrian economist Friedrich Hayek over 50 years ago. This tool was developed by ECCE TERRAM in 1996 and since than they have run over 50 ESMs for several kinds of questions and more than once they have gotten the best forecast for elections in Europe.

There are two political markets open, one for Prime minister and one for party votes. I have created a Bloggers Group that you can join so you can be ranked with other bloggers.

[quote]Political Stock Markets are a virtual stock markets, where participants express their expectations about future events through the buying and selling of virtual shares.

The “Wisdom of Crowds” is considered to outperform expert knowledge in areas like topicality as well as width, depth and references of knowledge. A principle of prediction markets, as of any electronic exchange, is that those who buy cheap and sell at a higher price benefit.

Practical evidence suggests that prediction markets are at least as accurate in forecasting events as other instruments used by polling institutes on similar demographic groups. This concept, part of a field of study called collective intelligence, is the ideal tool for market and event forecasts. The closer a participant’s forecast matches the real event, the more the value of the virtual account rises. This stimulates forward strategies and therefore using quality information and experience in these virtual investments is paramount. The Political Stock Markets also rewards closely matching expectations when dealing with rate fluctuation and diligence.[/quote]