The trend is your friend

Hat tip No Minister

It is said in politics that the trend is your friend, except of course if you are a Labour supporter.

Just the other day the folk at the Stranded were posting all sorts of graphs to explain why the TVNZ Colmar Brunton poll was a rougue.

The polls trendFor some more enlightened commentary that doesn’t come from the ninth floor or the Labour Party HQ we fortunately have Therese Arseneau who has even provided us with a lovely graph showing us exactly the trend rather than the nice Labour Party funded graph given by The Stranded.

The Graph shows One News polling data from the 2002 election up to May 2008.

“The trends are striking. National’s vote has been growing, on average, by just under half a percentage point (.46%) per month since 2002. At the same time, Labour’s support has been dropping by just under a quarter of a percentage point (.23%) per month.”

Of course we will soon see Steve Pierson or Tane burst forth about the Tory hacks at TVNZ.

The news is all bad for Labour and we might do well to set up a sweep to see how close plus or minus Labour can get to Bill English’s 21%.