Is Bill finished?

I ask the question for a couple of reasons.

Firstly his appalling handling of his housing arrangements just isn’t going away. In politics it is always about perception and Simon William English, former state tenant of Karori doesn’t look very flash perception wise.

I was critical of his response to the Tsunami, but the fact that Labour rushed Chris “Cruising” Carter off to make such a dick of himself with his disaster tourism tweets and the like may have helped Bill English a smidgen here.

However this is where it gets interesting.

Today in the Herald is a feature written by Patrick Gower about none other than Steven Joyce. Now the article itself is very good but you need to know a little bit about National party politics from the inside to know the significance of this article. Steven Joyce is a man from “The Shore”. The North Shore is the personal fiefdom of Murray McCully, the dark prince of New Zealand politics. Every MP north of the bridge until you get to Lockwood Smith’s electorate is a staunch loyal McCully lieutenant. Even just to the side of the bridge in Waitakere McCully’s dark influence flows. That North Shore connection is vital to remember when talking about Steven Joyce.

No MP north of the bridge is going anywhere. Wayne Mapp can’t be beaten, neither can Jonathan Coleman. McCully of course is McCully. Phil Heatley will stay put as will Lockwood Smith for at least another term as he stamps his mark on the parliament. The person to replace John Carter hasn’t even been born yet so there is no seat conceivably for Steven Joyce to even stand in north of the bridge. It is possible he could step into Epsom or to Tamaki but both electorates are feral when it comes to “outsiders” coming in and Steven Joyce being from the North Shore and being a McCully Man would count against him in ways that not even the dark prince could find a way to finangle out of. So Steven Joyce is likely to remain a list MP for the foreseeable future.

Now that is all very interesting but when you put that all together with an interesting interview this afternoon on NewstalkZB with Dick Richard Griffin and with John Pagani about Bill English then you start to wonder. Now again you have to have been around politics a very long time to know the significance of these two speaking. John Pagani is of course the erstwhile strategist of Jim Anderton and now works for Phil Goff, so anything he says can be taken for the politics that it is. Nevertheless John Pagani is a smart political operator and should be listened to.

It is Richard Griffen speaking though that is more intriguing. Again you have to have been around politics for a very long time to understand the significance but essentially we see the hand of the dark lord in here again. Anything Richard Griffin says is almost always straight from the sharp political brain of Murray McCully. He is his media mouthpiece when kites need flying.

Now you can see why I think that simon William English, former state tenant of Karori may well be for the chop. Dark forces are mounted and speaking against him. Mind it won’t be the opposition that can claim the scalp, it will be Murray McCully. Sure the opposition whined and muelled but they were fairly easily batted away on it. Simon William English, former state tenant of Karori actually spiked himself when he tried to be a bit cute with the rules.

Now of course this is nothing compared to the shenanigans under Labour with Winston Raymond Peters, 54, unemployed of Herne Bay but Labour have conveniently forgotten all about that. Nonetheless Simon William English, former state tenant of Karori may well be handing over the important finance portfolio soon and likely that will be handed over to Steven Joyce.

Of course in the unlikely event that I am wrong you could always bet against me on the iPredict stock for Bill English retaining the portfolio….if only they had one.