Latest Roy Morgan results

Yet another rogue poll from March 2007 when the phenomenon of rogue polls start becoming apparent. The latest rogue poll is from Roy Morgan.

National Party 53.5% (up 2%)
Maori Party 3.5% (up 1.5%)
ACT NZ 1.5% (down 1%)

Labour Party 30.5% (down 2.5%) slip sliding away
Greens 7% (up 0.5%)
NZ First 2.5% (unchanged)
and Others 1.5% (up 0.5%).

Labour really has a dilemma, internecine and public warfare has broken out in Labour’s ranks. Grant Robertson (someone I’d be keeping a weather eye on) and the President of Party have both spoken out about Goff’s Orewa speech he Witi’d off Don Brash. If Goff has to publicly play down dissent then the dissent is loud inside the party.

Fran O’Sullivan talks glowingly about Shane Jones but is the man really electable?

The problem is he has never proved anyone will vote for him.

John Carter v Shane Jones ????????9275 votes margin for Carter in 2005
John Carter v Shane Jones II ?????10054 votes margin for Carter in 2008

Arguably it is a bit unfair comparing anyone to John Carter as he is so good he would probably hold Northland from beyond the grave. But even so, Jones has yet to show he is a contender because he can’t actually get people to vote for him in Northland, so probably can’t get the Labour caucus to believe he can get all New Zealanders to vote for him.

The big questions for Jones are; Does he try for a safe Labour seat in the next election? Does he get trounced in Northland? or Does he put his balls on the block and go up against Hone Harawira and really get a kicking?

Goff and Labour really do have a problem. People are angry about the ETS and pandering to Maori by John Key as well as the do nothing approach so far but the reality is they also don’t want to vote Labour just yet.