Oh F**k!

Oh F**k! That is what Nick Smith and John Key should be saying right about now.


Because all their plans to reef extra tax out of us all with the ETS are pretty well screwed. The law as it stands now is rooted. It is rooted because, simply put, the market for such nonsense has died.

EU Carbon trading Market crashesThe vaunted playgrounds of Al Gore, the Chicago Carbon exchange and the? Euro Carbon Market are almost non-existant, dead, kaput, rooted, f**ked.

These are the only real markets that New Zealand companies can try and sell their now worthless carbon credits. The Russian and East European markets are essentially unreliable and not genuinely recognised.

So the issue is that the only other jurisdiction to have an ETS is the EU.

The EU ETS is of course much more limited than NZ?s insane scheme ? it includes between a third and a half of the EU economy, not 100% like mad David Parker and Nick Smith decided for New Zealand.

But now even that limited EU ETS is collapsing. It isn’t surprising that the CCX is collapsing too when you consider who their advisory board is.

?Dead? is a word that might describe trading on this exchange.

Maybe it has something to do with the members of the advisory board? On it we find Ed Begley Jr., Joe Kennedy II, and Dr. Rajenda Pachauri. With a team like that, how could it fail? The real problem with carbon credits is that there?s nothing tangible to trade. It?s all spun from thin air, literally.

So NZ will be the only country in the world to have an ETS that actually imposes real costs on the economy.

Already, all activity in the forestry industry has completely ceased as a result of forestry having been in the ETS since 1 January 2008.

Even though Labour and then National said the ETS would encourage the industry ? in its manifesto National said 600,000 hectares would be planted in its first term ? not a single hectare of new forests has been planted, to Whaleoil?s knowledge, since then, and not a single hectare is planned to be planted this winter, next winter or any winter after.)

On 1 July 2010, all petrol and electricity prices will rise ? and those costs will flow through to every other part of the economy.? Unlike the GST rise, no compensation is planned.? That will lead to a crash in economic activity throughout the economy, just as has happened in forestry.

Meanwhile, Australia and the US have abandoned plans for their ETSs.

And China, India, Brazil have no intention of ever even considering one.

The EU scheme is collapsing.

No other country is considering an ETS.

This means that NZ will remain the only country in the world where ETS costs will be paid by families, consumers and businesses.

And this was done why?????

ETS - Wolf in Sheeps clothingThe only rational remaining now for the ETS is simply taxation increases. The wolf in sheeps clothing, but the only thing that is going to get slaughtered is our economy. Labour knew it, National knows it, and the dullard sheeple think we are saving the planet by doing it, that is until it kicks in on 1 Julu 2010, just a scant 3 and 1/2 months away. Labour knew the ETS would bring in $21 billion in extra taxes to the govt ? this is what the ETS is really all about.? Obviously it can?t be about saving the planet, because NZ produces just 0.2% of global emissions (even if you believe all that crap).? It?s ENTIRELY about tax collection.? That?s why Cullen (and now English) support it.? Fuck the productive sector, of course ? as long as Bill gets his $21 billion in extra taxes.

And what about Nationals statements about the fiscal neutrality of our ETS, Labour’s plan of course was even more insane, even higher levels of taxation with zero compensation. Sure they cry crocodile tears now over GST, sure they accuse National of the ETS of not being fiscally neutral, and not because their ETS would have been, no because they just want John Key and Nick Smith to admit the truth even if they were never going to do the same.

Look at that graph. Go on really look at it John Key. Look with your traders eyes, do the math. The old adage that when you find that you are riding a dead horse the best way to move forward is to dismount.

With the CCX and the Euro Carbon Markets both trading at a round 10c per tonne! And our ETS legislation has set the lower price at $50 any fool except perhaps Nick Smith can see that the people who have carbon credits can’t sell them and everyone is now carrying the can – This is quite simply “How to fuck your economy by keeping your blinkers on – 101”.

If think that this market is rooted then think again, there is literally hundreds of years of evidence that markets that are based on hype and thin air all end the the same way, in tears.