Can Paul Quinn beat Trevor Mallard in Hutt South?

The latest poll results putting Labour 26% behind National mean a lot of once safe red seats are increasingly vulnerable.

In Hutt South, where Labour?s crippled campaign manager has a majority of 4086 over former Wellington Rugby Captain Paul Quinn. This is with a 11% gap in the polls in 2008. In 2011 a 26% gap means that Paul can expect to win 350 votes per 1% change, so a 15% change means a swing of 5250 votes to Paul, or a nominal majority of 1164.

Labour will need to divert resources away from the marginal seat of Rimutaka where it is defending Chris Hipkins narrow majority to Hutt South to save Trevor. Bad luck for Chippy who won’t make it back in on the list, and really bad for Labour who have overloaded Mallard with the Campaign Managers role, as well as him being busy fighting an?asymmetrical?war he cannot win against a blogger who cannot lose. Duck is pretty busy anyway, without needing to have to campaign in his seat against a fiercely competitive opponent.