National & ACT Screwing Labour

Adam Bennett describes a deal between National and ACT where National cede Epsom in exchange for ACT running a party vote campaign in Waimakariri and New Plymouth. He then speculates that a deal will be done to protect Sam Lotu-Iiga in Maungakiekie. Labour are of course squealing like pigs in the slaughterhouse over the deal

Sources inside National are suggesting that they might want to do a broader deal, looking at protecting the following National held seats:


Seat Winning Candidate Losing Candidate Nat EV Lab EV Margin
Maungakiekie LOTU-IIGA, Peseta Sam (NAT) BEAUMONT, Carol (LAB) 15,491 13,549 1,942
Hamilton West MACINDOE, Tim (NAT) GALLAGHER, Martin (LAB) 16,163 14,545 1,618
Auckland Central KAYE, Nikki (NAT) TIZARD, Judith (LAB) 14,677 13,180 1,497
?taki GUY, Nathan (NAT) HUGHES, Darren (LAB) 18,885 17,531 1,354
West Coast-Tasman AUCHINVOLE, Chris (NAT) O’CONNOR, Damien (LAB) 15,844 14,873 971
Waitakere BENNETT, Paula (NAT) PILLAY, Lynne (LAB) 13,704 13,072 632
New Plymouth YOUNG, Jonathan (NAT) DUYNHOVEN, Harry (LAB) 16,539 16,434 105

There is internal debate about whether current poll numbers means they don?t need to do the deal in National held seats but can do the deal to take more seats of Labour. The marginal seats held by Labour that are considered vulnerable are:


Electorate Winning Candidate Losing Candidate Nat EV Lab EV Margin
Waimakariri COSGROVE, Clayton (LAB) WILKINSON, Kate (NAT) 15,970 16,360 -390
Rimutaka HIPKINS, Christopher John (LAB) WHITESIDE, Richard (NAT) 12,982 13,735 -753
Christchurch Central BURNS, Brendon (LAB) WAGNER, Nicky (NAT) 13,143 14,078 -935
Palmerston North LEES-GALLOWAY, Iain (LAB) PLIMMER, Malcolm (NAT) 14,860 15,977 -1,117
?hariu DUNNE, Peter Francis (UFNZ) CHAUVEL, Charles (LAB) 10,009 11,297 -1,288
Wellington Central ROBERTSON, Grant (LAB) FRANKS, Stephen (NAT) 15,142 17,046 -1,904

A 26% gap in the polls means that all these seats are nominally National, and if ACT decide to chase the party vote and ignore the electorate vote then Cosgrove, Hipkins, Burns, Lees-Galloway and aspiring deputy leader Robertson all lose their seats. The implications of this are Cosgrove and Robertson make it back in on the list.

Does this mean there are another three ?ones? who need to vote Goff out to have any chance of staying in parliament?