Labour can't win – Matt McCarten

Political commentator and tax cheat Matt McCarten reckons Labour can’t win. Not now, not with Phil Goff, not for several cycles.

National: The only question is whether they can rule alone or will need a coalition partner.?Anything less than 46 per cent of the vote will be seen as a defeat for Key. If he gets more than 50 per cent he’s the new Keith Holyoake and will remain Prime Minister for as long as he likes.

Labour: Phil Goff’s people are spinning that they could get 38 per cent.

Even if they got to 35 per cent he deserves another shot. Labour’s problem is that voters have already made up their minds about the next election. The danger is that Labour’s vote could collapse to fewer than 30 per cent, which would mean they’d be out of power for at least a couple of terms.

He is right about the voters. Labour’s restless back-bench and at risk MPs are talking, even I am hearing the dis-content.

Labour continues to cling to dreams and Matt McCarten explains one such dream:

In three months the World Cup will be over and all focus will be on the other competition this year – the general election.

A mate of mine was confidently predicting to me that if the All Blacks lost, Prime Minister John Key was toast. I’ve heard this sort of crystal ball gazing in every election.

Labour will need a lot more than an All Black loss to dent Key’s chances of re-election.

They’d need our rugby team knocked out in the first round; followed by mayhem on a scale of this week’s English riots; unemployment to soar past 10 per cent; and interest rates to go through the roof.

Even then I suspect none of it would stick to Key.

I’ve have long said this, in much cruder terms. Basically John Key could walk an old nana and her zimmer frame into the middle of Queen Street and shoot her in the back of the head in front of a lunchtime crowd and they would all say Clayton Weatherstone did it, and the media would report that Mark Hotchin was implicated.