National Leadership – The Longer Term Prospects

The long term is harder to predict as MPs self destruct through drinking, rooting and turning out to be useless. The longer term contenders have very safe blue seats or solid list places, so they will be around when National is next in Government. In no particular order, and without the details of other posts:

Amy Adams – Along with Hekia Parata the stand out of the 2008 intake. Done a good job in her areas of responsibility and has received promotions based on merit not gender. Gender will help make the step up into cabinet but not into leadership. Politically na?ve which will likely handicap her, with her naivety including telling people she only likes governing, not campaigning, and what role other MPs will play in her regime.

Hekia Parata – Came into caucus a star who would have been in Parliament in 2002 if Bill English hadn?t been so useless. Apparently doing well as a cabinet minister. Probably too much of a liberal elite, and too hot a temper to make it to leader. Hekia will find it hard to get caucus to vote for her. Also doesn?t have a seat so is at the mercy of the party and the leader for her seat.

Simon Bridges – Safe blue seat, good profile and good background. Seriously good intellect and known to be principled rather than poll driven. Needs to prove the rumours about his lack of work ethic are not true by working his guts out doing the boring, mechanical work in select committee or he will end up being regarded like Shane Jones before the porno stuff came out. All the talent in the world but maybe not the mongrel to get to the top.

The likely 2011 intake is pretty disappointing, with Barry, Simpson and McKelvie too old to be serious contenders for the leadership before their merits are considered. Other than the old three, only Sabin and Mitchell are guaranteed seats, and the others will struggle to hold seats when National inevitably falls in popularity. Mark Mitchell is the man to watch among the 2011 intake.