National's Strategic Stupidity

The Age of StupidThis blog has been scathing about Labour?s strategic stupidity, and mocked their underpants gnome stealing strategy. Dumb strategic choices mean Labour are out of play this election, and could still have a lot of the same tired old faces back next term. This could cause them problems for another cycle, but these problems are nowhere near as bad as the problems National are about to institutionalise.

The referendum on electoral reform has the potential to kill off National?s chances of being government in the future.

MMP favours the left wing parties. It was set up to favour the left, and it will increasingly favour the left as minor parties die out.

There are only three parties assured of a future in the New Zealand Parliament. National, Labour and the Greens. The other minor parties are either dying or will die, and are unlikely to be replaced. Future National leaders will have to choose between trying to win an outright majority or doing a deal with Labour or the Greens to form a government.

This scenario may not matter to the current front bench, who will have left politics by time National try to win power back from opposition. Backbenchers wanting front bench positions in the next National administration should start jumping up and down and telling the strategic team to start lookin ginto the future, and who will be coalition partners when National is trying to win back power if MMP is retained. Anyone wanting to be Prime Minister or a Cabinet Minister needs to think carefully about who their coalition partners are going to be in the future, and whether there will be any.

In the next few days this blog will consider the future of all the minor parties, and what this means for National. None of it is good, and at the moment National are sleepwalking into an extremely hostile long term strategic environment.