Which Parties will be in Parliament after the 2014 Elections?

I have run a series of posts on who will be in Parliament in 2014, this summarises it:

Guaranteed in Parliament

National – Major Party, guaranteed
Labour – Major Party, guaranteed
Greens – Looney fringe party, guaranteed due to the high number of looney fringe voters

Perhaps in Parliament

Maori Party – One Seat, maybe a list seat if Sharples and Turia retire
ACT – Dying, maybe Banksie will keep Epsom if he can be bothered with politics, and maybe one or two list seats.
United Future – Dunne has to go, he has been there since 1984
Mana – Hone will probably hang around like a bad smell

Other Parties

New Zealand First: ?2014 Winston will have decomposed further, and more of his members will be dead. Not likely
Conservative Party: Very tough if it doesn?t get in this time, and that looks like a long shot

All this points to a very difficult equation for National to hold power. National will not be able to maintain its 48% target to win a majority as people will get sick of Key over time as they get sick of all leaders and governments. Labour cannot continue to be as hopelessly inept when they clean out the plonkers like Goff and Mallard and King and Dalziel. The Greens will maintain their looney voter base.

John Key could end up being a popular Prime Minister, and with the largest party in the house, but no coalition partners, or not enough coalition partners to form a government. So a grey man like Parker, or an arrogant prick like Cunliffe could be Prime Minister while National rage from the opposition benches.

Tomorrow I will post some tables showing numbers that National will need to keep in power in 2014.