Craig to stand in Rodney

Colin Craig has finally ended speculation on where he will stand, deciding to get get beaten in Rodney electorate instead of getting beaten in Epsom electorate.

The leader of the Conservative Party, Colin Craig, has confirmed he will stand as the Rodney electorate candidate.

The announcement today ends speculation he would stand against John Banks in Auckland’s Epsom.

Craig says he was attracted to the challenge of taking on Banks, his former mayoral campaign rival, but he’s ”followed his heart by standing for the people” of Rodney.

”I’ve lived in Rodney and my business involvement here has spanned more than 20 years. Many of my family live here and I’m passionate about getting things moving for everyone in the region,” he says.

Craig’s father Ross Craig was a Rodney district councillor until the Auckland super city council was formed last year.

The Conservative Party claims polling in the area shows Craig is ahead of his nearest rival.

I think Colin has made a mistake, one of two highlighted in the Dompost article. He should?have?stood in Tamaki electorate against Allan Peachey. Given that Don Brash won’t do the sensible thing and stand in Tamaki then the opportunity arises for someone else to take the fight to the barely coherent Peachey. There is likely to be a by-election in Tamaki and so raising his?profile?before that would?have?been good. By-elections can and often do throw up rogue results, and campaigning and?spending?wisely in Tamaki could have?delivered?a seat to the Conservative Party.

The second error he has made is talking up non-existant polls. He is just setting himself up for a fall by touting polls. He has fallen into the same trap as Don Brash in making up polls, it gives your political foes a stick to beat you with when you fail to deliver, and creates the perception that you are loser.

Politics is about perception and creating the perception you are a winner. When you tout poll results without actually publishing them or at least naming a reputable polling company then people will just close their ears to you. Winston Peters always lies about polls, he lied to my face about the latest internal polls from National that he constantly claims to be in receipt of, Don Brash lied about polling in Epsom and for Act and now Colin Craig is talking up polling that frankly is highly unlikely to exist.

If the polling does exist then?was probably about name recognition, if that is the case then Colin would beat Mark?Mitchell. That however is moot because with a majority of over 15,000 most voters turn out to vote for the blue N. In Rodney a donkey with a national tie could have won the seat, and if the selection process hadn’t been sorted they very nearly would have had a donkey to vote for.

I don’t know who is advising Colin but he should take a leaf out of National’s and Labour’s play book and never talk about internal polling.