Mallard and Dyson shafted by their own team in boundary redraw

It is looking increasingly like Labour’s own advisor to the Electoral Commission has worked very hard at shafting Ruth Dyson and Trevor Mallard. So much so he has missed some strange looking boundary adjustments in other areas.

Jadis has performed some very good analysis of the changes over at the lifestyle, travel and arts blog of David Farrar. From the looks of it there are no winners on the left side of politics.

And most of the losers are Labour.

Losers:

Ruth Dyson, Port Hills ? Dyson is the biggest loser in this boundary review. ?Her majority has been reversed with the Nats stronghold of Halswell moving into the seat, and Anderton?s old stomping ground of Sydenham moving into Christchurch Central. ?Dyson will have a real battle to hold this, even with the Nats putting in a new candidate. ?How winnable the seat is very much depends on the strength of the Nat candidate, but a good candidate could take the seat with a 2000 majority. ?I?d be gutted if I was Dyson as Pete Hodgson (who did the boundaries for Labour) is a good mate of hers. ?Perhaps this is Labour?s new (poor) strategy of retiring MPs.

Trevor Mallard, Hutt South ? This is the surprise of the final boundaries. ?Mallard has gained all of the ?Western Hills (good Nat territory) and lost super red areas of Naenae and Rimutaka. Labour should have been able to stop this occurring but appear to have put up no fight. ?Mallard should be furious with his party for failing to keep Hutt South a real red seat. ?Why didn?t Hodgson fight hard for Mallard? ?Was it a directive from on high? ?Realistically, Mallard should hold the seat but he?ll be working hard for it and never should have been put in this position. I expect Mallard?s majority to be pegged down a few.?

Sam Lotu-iiga, Maungakiekie ? Labour were grumpy in 2008 when Sam took one of ?their? red seats in Maungakiekie, so they will no doubt be pleased that the blue booths have almost all been taken out of Maungakiekie. ?Beaumont would be silly to think her win is a foregone conclusion as Sam will throw everything into his beloved electorate and is able to cross party divides for electorate support. ?This seat is too close to call. ?Another true marginal.

Cunliffe and Labour ? Labour have racked up few gains, and have taken significant hits in Christchurch, the Hutt Valley, Hamilton and Auckland. ?In Maungakiekie where Labour locals organised a large number of submissions they?ve made headway but they could have been similarly organised elsewhere and chose not to be. That poor organisation has put a number of Labour MPs at serious risk. ?At this rate, Labour will have no provincial seats (Tamati, you are dreaming in Rotorua with another Nat stronghold (Te Puke) going into Rotorua) and are fighting from behind in the marginal seats. Where was the leadership from Cunliffe, Coatsworth, Barnett and the hierarchy to stop this happening? ?Overall, a fail for Labour.

Sam Lotu-Iiga should be fine, it isn;t like he has any real competition in his seat and he will ensure that the paper majority is much larger in reality. Carol Beaumont, affectionately known as Caropotamus, will never be a real political force. Pasifika people looking for a real representative will look no further than Sam and the blue team, they have delivered real representation rather than token brown faces.

Mallard meanwhile won;t be enjoying his Easter as he tries to work out why Chippie and other have shafted him with the boundary changes.

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