As night follows day: Chicken Little Time

The Sky is Falling.

New Zealanders should brace themselves over the next few days for chilling threats aimed at civilians, trade and diplomatic interests after the decision to send troops to Iraq, a strategic analyst has warned.

Paul Buchanan said New Zealand was “raising our target profile” by making the announcement and the response would likely be swift.

“I think …within the next few days there will be a video and the Islamic State will threaten us directly and it will tell us what it intends to do to our citizens and our interests. That’s going to make for very sobering viewing,” he said.

“For New Zealanders travelling in the Middle East in particular, no matter what they’re doing – diplomats, aid workers, businessmen, students – they are now at clear and absolute risk.”

IS’s reach extended well beyond Iraq, Syria and Libya, meaning anyone should take due precautions.

“Tourists make the softest target … ?if that’s what you have in mind.”

He said the tourist industry might like to “flag going to the Middle East any time soon” and direct tourists to other destinations.

IS would likely point out New Zealand was now part of the “enemy or Crusader coalition”.

“They exhort their people abroad to conduct attacks in the home countries.”

That could affect morale here in New Zealand.

Paul Buchannan is just making stuff up. ? And he’s come up with so many scenarios, that when something does happen, even though his hit rate will be a few percent, he’ll be lauded as an expert even though he’s doing worse than Ken Ring. ??

When he worked in the Pentagon, one job was working out the “threshold of toleration” – how many killed in action would the public tolerate before they withdrew support.

“At what point does this become too expensive a proposition?”

He did not think the risk had markedly increased inside New Zealand, although he could not discount the possibility a sympathiser may decide to undertake individual action – so-called lone wolf action – or that there might be a small cell here.

But he believed the local Muslim community was heavily monitored by intelligence agencies and factionalised.

“I don’t think … that the Muslim community here is so radicalised or so passive that they would allow radical people to operate with impunity.”

Buchanan said with only 16 specialist trainers out of the 106 troops set to go to the Taji base a large proportion was force protection.

“That gives the lie to the claim this is primarily a training mission.”

He said he was highly sceptical about assurances the SAS had not already been in Iraq.

Friends in the United States military had indicated to him “those claims are false” though he had no way of disproving it.

He believed the SAS should go because they could do “a very good job of making the Islamic State’s lives miserable, particularly at night”.

He would be surprised if New Zealand SAS had not been doing that already for some months.

Buchannan is saying that Key has already sent the SAS in months ago. ? Big call Paul. ? No need to “I wouldn’t be surprised” hedging language.

And the funny thing is, if NZ SAS are on the ground in Iraq, how has this caused any change to New Zealanders at home so far? ? Are you saying ISIS don’t know, even though you do?

If ISIS want to do anything spectacular, we have quite a number of sporting events this year where NZ is on the world stage.

Lone Gunmen – Paul Buchannan is waiting for you to prove him right.

Listen Paul, you strategic genius you, New Zealanders have already received ISIS related threats. ?Some of them have been forwarded to the police. ?You’re so busy theorising, you’ve been missing the reality of the situation so far.

ISIS is at war with the world. ?New Zealand is at war with ISIS. ?This happened before John Key’s speech yesterday.


– Vernon Small, Mike Mather, Stuff