Better get used to the idea that Winston Peters will be the MP for Northland

via 3 News

via 3 News

A second poll has NZ First leader Winston Peters with a commanding lead in the Northland byelection just a day out from polling day.

The One News Colmar Brunton poll has Mr Peters on 54 per cent support while National’s Mark Osborne was back on 36 per cent – similar results to the 3News Reid Research poll on Wednesday.

The Colmar Brunton results also showed Mr Peters’ high results were courtesy largely of Labour voters – 69 per cent of Labour supporters polled said they would vote for Mr Peters in the byelection.

However, Mr Peters had also picked up 15 per cent of National’s supporters. Eighty per cent of National supporters said they would vote for Mr Osborne.

Polling in electorates is?notoriously difficult. ?But the fact we’ve had two polls that pretty much say the same thing, ?and these reflect Nationals own numbers – more or less -, means that it is now extremely unlikely that Mark Osborne will pull off a swifty on Saturday.

If the 80% National support is correct, then the only way for National to salvage this is for every National voter in the electorate to turn out. ?All of them.

But can they be bothered?

The sad thing is that it never had to come to this. ?I’ll be keeping a close eye on Key to see if he’s going to mete out repercussions for failure. ?He’s been happy enough to destroy the careers of MPs for small or non-existent transgressions, but I suspect he’s going to try and keep the ‘dream team’ together, much to his detriment. ?If he does, it will be one more decision that will come to haunt him.


– Claire Trevett, NZ Herald