TV3: Peters to win Northland

The latest 3 News-Reid Research poll shows Mr Peters with a clear lead over National’s Mark Osborne.

“We’ve got to keep on working and we’ve got three weeks to lay our message out there,” says Mr Peters.

He’s has been in politics for 40 years, while Mr Osborne’s had just four days.

“I’m a local, I’m across the communities and as I say, New Zealand First hasn’t stood a candidate here in the last three by-elections,” says Mr Osborne.

Northland was a safe National seat until Mike Sabin resigned because of “personal issues” after a police investigation.

Prime Minister John Key claimed just yesterday that Mr Peters had no chance. But voters are clearly upset they didn’t find out about the police investigation into Mr Sabin until after the election.

Asked if they should have been told, 71 percent said yes, while 20 percent said no, they shouldn’t have been told. The remaining 9 percent didn’t know.

It’s all over bar the shouting. ?Winston Peters has a healthy lead over National. ?

Didn’t I tell you that the media were going to whip this up like the circus it is?

There is no doubt the polling is dodgy. ?Polling in electorates is notoriously hard to get right. ?Whereas national polling has been done enough times for the biases to be known and worked out, polling companies don’t have a poop show in hell of getting accurate answers.

So here’s what’s happening. ?Winston has name recognition, where as whatshisface from National does not.

But, the usual suspects, including Paddy Gower, are making a meal of it.

Relax my dear readers – this poll is a load of doodah.

One thing though. ?Osborne needs to stop saying things like “I’m across the communities”. ?Talk to the people you idiot.

And something else: ?a donkey dressed in a tutu will win Northland for National, so don’t think you are personally popular or a particularly successful candidate. ? Heed Sabin’s travels. ?All steam and no hangi, eh!

The other candidates must absolutely?love Winston having joined the race. ? He’ll suck the oxygen from the whole process. ? Willow? ?Who dat?

– Paddy Gower, 3 News