Why Horizon Research Polls are poos

The latest Horizon Poll is out and it is on the Auckland Mayoralty.

According to them Phil Goff is a shoe in, if he has the courage to stand.

Former Labour leader and cabinet minister Phil Goff is a clear front runner in results of a poll on who would receive most current and potential support if they were to run for the Auckland Mayoralty in 2016.

A Horizon Research poll of Auckland Council area residents conducted between 19 and 26 March 2015 finds Mr Goff, the MP for Mt Roskill, has 20% support of all respondents if he were to become a Mayoral candidate.

Former Mayor John Banks has 8% support.

Current Mayor Len Brown has 5%.

The Chief Executive of the Auckland Chamber of Commerce, Michael Barnett, has 5% support and former National cabinet minister and current MP for Pakuranga Maurice Williamson has 6% support.

Current councillor Cameron Brewer has 5% support and Deputy Mayor Penny Hulse 4%.

Mr Goff also has least voters saying they would ?definitely not? vote for him (24%) while 56% of all respondents say they would definitely not vote for Mr Brown.

But all is not as it seems.

Horizon Research uses a panel and it isn’t random.

591 members of the HorizonPoll national panel, representing the New Zealand population 18+, who live in the Auckland Council area, responded to the survey between 19 and 26 March 2015.

The sample is weighted on age, gender, education, personal income, employment status and party vote in the 2014 general election and has a maximum margin of error at a 95% confidence level of ?4.1% overall.

This is complete rubbish…they have?used the national panel then stripped out the 591 people who live in the Auckland Council area totally destroying the integrity of the sampling.

The sample size is tiny, and it is self-selecting…hardly scientific at all.

If there is any consolation in all of this poll is that those 591 people really don’t like Len Brown.