How is Robbo going to spin this good news?

Labour likes to talk down New Zealand and its economy. They are trying, and failing, to convince voters that they have better solutions.

I doubt even Robbo could spin this news negatively.

This Thursday GDP figures are expected to show the New Zealand economy grew by at least 3.5 per cent in the year to June 30.

ASB’s economists are picking it to be as high as 3.7 per cent.

“We expect GDP lifted a whopping 1.2 per cent over the June quarter, led by construction, manufacturing and retail activity,” ASB senior economist Jane Turner writes in her preview.

Hang on just a minute, wasn’t there supposed to be a crisis in manufacturing?

That will be a stunning result for an agricultural economy that has just been through one of the most dramatic dairy price slumps in living memory.

It’s hard not to draw the conclusion that the rock star economy is on the comeback trail – at least in the terms that the catch-phrase was originally coined by HSBC economist Paul Bloxham.

That is to say, relatively speaking.

New Zealand currently has one of the highest growth economies compared to peers in the Western developed world.

The country hasn’t had a recession in eight years now.

And who put NZ in recession? Oh, that’s right, Labour did.

Australia’s economy has just rebounded to 3.3 per cent annual growth.

The bounce in dairy prices of the past few weeks – moving things out of financial disaster territory at least for most farmers – will only add to the confidence to New Zealand’s outlook.

We saw in on the currency market last week as the kiwi surged to US74.5c – a 16 month high – and also lifted above A97c.

“The surge in Q2 growth will be led by the construction sector, manufacturing and retail activity. Unusually strong exports will also contribute to a temporary boost to Q2 growth, led by large lifts in meat, dairy, kiwifruit and oil exports,” ASB’s Turner notes.

There’s no doubt the strong economic growth is also being underpinned by record net migration gains.

Voters never turf out a government when the economy is performing well.


-NZ Herald