Done with Dunne

Guest post

Ohariu is one of the key electorate this year. With the deal done by the Greens, Labour sees this as a massive opportunity to take out one of National?s support partners, be it only 1 seat.

Are they right in having this expectation?

At first glance, Labour has a right to be excited. Their electoral candidate vote has grown since 2002. In 2014 the Labour candidate received 34% of the vote compared to Dunne?s 36%. National at the same time has dropped over the last 3 elections, however, this is mainly due to the deal that National have with Dunne. In 2014 the National candidate only received 16% of the vote. The Green candidate vote has remained steady at 7% since 2008.

With Greens out of the way, Labour has a good shot of pushing Dunne off his perch.

BUT the party vote in the electorate is telling a different story. The National Party vote has been steadily growing and in 2014 the National Party received 50% of the party vote. Compare this with the Labour Party which has been dropping over the last 3 years to only 23% in 2014. The Green party vote in the same time has been slowly increasing to 15% in 2014.The United Party vote has gone from 13% in 2002 to only 0.7% in 2014.

So while the Labour candidate vote has grown to 34%, the Labour Party vote has been declining. Is there any more growth in the Labour Party in Ohariu as the candidate vote has been stagnant at 34% for the last 2 elections? Looking at the declining party vote it doesn?t look too hopeful.

The National Party has been going through the reverse. Is 2017 the year National party voters give up on Dunne and move their vote to Brett Hudson, thus stopping Labour taking control of their electorate?

United Future is in a death spiral and looks like the end is near. They have gone from a total party vote in NZ of 135,918 in 2002 to only 5286 votes in 2014.