Survey reveals National Party vote cannot be taken for granted

Our Whaleoil survey on Thursday had 1195 responses in one day. One thousand responses is a good statistical sample of our conservative/libertarian readership. By this morning the number of responses had increased to 1255. It is a targeted sample as most of our readers are National Party supporters so what is revealed in this survey should be taken very seriously by National Party HQ. Given the results, the Act Party and New Zealand First should also be pricking up their ears as a lost vote for National could be a gained vote for them. The Act Party, especially at this stage, appears the most likely recipient of votes lost by National.

The Party vote is the vote most at risk for the National Party as only 31% of our readers confirmed that they will definitely be giving National their party vote compared to 46% that will definitely be giving them their electorate vote. The Act Party has 7% who will definitely be giving them their party vote and NZ First 2%. Where it gets really interesting is the number of people who say that they are undecided or that it is likely or highly likely that these two minor parties will get their party vote. When you take those numbers into consideration National and Bill English will see that they cannot take people who have voted for them previously under a John Key led government for granted.