Tell them they’re dreamin’, says Dunne

It’s safe to say ACT will retain Epsom because it’s the oldest deal around and the voters have shown they know the rules of the game.

Ohariu is much more interesting and less certain.

The popular media perception is that O’Connor has been given an easy ride into parliament.

That’s based on the calculation that Dunne’s vote in 2014 was 13,569 while the combined vote of the Labour and Greens candidates was 15,623.

It’s assumed, probably correctly, that if there’s no Green candidate the party’s supporters will back Labour’s man.

But it’s not that simple, because there was a National Party candidate in the field in 2014.

Brett Hudson won 6120 votes, although in theory National’s supporters should have given their ticks to Dunne.

Dunne describes reports about his imminent demise as “wildly inaccurate, ridiculously sensational and devoid of any factual basis”.

I love how a report of his imminent demise can be “wildly inaccurate”. ?It is either correct, or not correct. ?This blog knows that Peter Dunne isn’t the sort of person to face up to reality, preferring to hide away and hoping the problems will just go away.

Dunne says Labour and the Greens are making “the heroic assumption” that the 16 per cent of voters who supported National’s candidate will do so again in September.

“Yet if only a third of those voters shifted their support to the United Future candidate, the Labour/Greens dream would be all over,” said Dunne.

“Ohariu voters are very intelligent, and capable of working out very easily what is in their strategic best interests.”

Yes they are. ?But I doubt they are going to back a man who got screwed over by a young female journalist once they figure out that was just one in a pattern of poor judgements that Dunne’s been able to keep from the public.

The deal he had with Key is now null and void. ?Worse, O’Connor is likely to know some of it due to his close association with police over the years.

As I always like to point out: ?it’s never the original sin – it’s the cover-up that undoes them.


– Peter Wilson, NZN via Yahoo! News