No improvement for Labour, Ardern ahead of Little in latest 1 News poll

Six months out from the election and Andrew Little is still failing to gain traction in the polls.

The latest 1 News/Colmar Brunton poll is dire reading for Andrew Little and Labour.

There’s little change for the major parties though with National steady this month on 46, Labour also unchanged on 30 and the Greens holding their ground on 11 per cent.<

New Zealand First has however slipped three per cent to eight per cent this month.

National and Labour both slip during the campaign and I see no reason to change my view that further slippage will occur this election.

That means Labour are at risk still of a sub 30 result. Winston Peters always goes up as well.

None of the other minor parties have made it to one per cent. However Gareth Morgan’s The Opportunities Party, has made its first appearance in the 1 NEWS poll, at 0.4 per cent.

The surge in support for the Maori Party comes after it secured a peace deal with Hone Harawira’s Mana party and won the backing of the Maori King in the Hauraki Waikato electorate.

Co leader Te Ururoa Flavell says he believes the rise in support is a sign that Kiwis are becoming more aware of the party’s “pragmatic” approach to politics.

According to tonight’s poll on four per cent the Maori Party would have five MPs in Parliament and that could potentially see them holding a King maker role after the election.

Only if National maintains that poll rating. If they slip much lower it is moot. Which explains the Maori party’s sucking up to Labour.

National for example would be able to form a government on this poll result using its just existing support partners of Act, United Future and the Maori Party. It would not need New Zealand First.

Labour and Greens on the other hand could form a government with the Maori Party’s support but would also need the support of New Zealand First as well.

Or National would just form a government with NZ First and not need any race-based parties or cult parties.

What this does show though is the forlorn attempts by Labour to snuff out the Maori party. That strategy now looks doomed.

Meanwhile in the preferred Prime Minister stakes Bill English has taken a hit this month down from 31 to 25 per cent.

In second equal place at nine per cent are Winston Peters up one and Labour’s new deputy leader Jacinda Ardern who’s up five per cent this month also nine per cent.

Andrew Little is back at seven per cent.

Oh dear. With a defamation case starting this week and Jacindarella out polling him, will Labour solve their leadership crisis or will the voters?

Bill English is showing once again that the best strategy for him is to lay lower than a lizard drinking. He’s been in the news a fair bit recently and his ratings have slipped. No surprises there.

Andrew Little has massive problems now. Labour’s numbers aren’t moving, he really needs at least 35 to be credible. His deputy out rates him as preferred Prime Minister and so does Winston Peters. His claims to continue to be called the Leader of the opposition look rather hollow. Labour has some math to consider, should they ditch the albatross and install Jacindarella and get a boost in their numbers, or stick it out and knife him totally after they lose?

Perhaps Little might like to seek some advice from David Cunliffe how this is going to turn out.


– 1News