Darryl Kerrigan wants a word with these report writers

Grant Bradley writes in a newspaper: Quote.

A major report into New Zealand’s energy future finds demand for electricity will double and forecasts electric vehicles will make up 85 percent of light vehicles by 2050.

And as fossil fuels are dumped as a way of powering industry, the Transpower-commissioned report found the equivalent of more than four big wind farms a year would be needed to keep up with surging demand.

By as early as 2030 electric vehicles (EVs) would make up 40 per cent of the fleet of more than three million light vehicles as they become cheaper to buy, run and have a longer lifespan than internal combustion engines. End of quote.

In an earlier post, I plotted the government figures for the Light Vehicle fleet and the projected electric vehicle numbers for 2021 which was “64,000 EVs on our roads by 2021

Extending that out another nine years would have a fleet size of about five million vehicles. And 40 percent are going to be electric?? That is two million electric vehicles, up from 64,000 in just 9 years?? That is 215,000 new electric vehicles on the road every year for nine years. Really?

Tell ‘im ‘e’s dreamin’ Quote.

The study predicted the country’s peak demand risk would be exacerbated with growing demand being met from increasingly intermittent energy sources. One way of solving this could be a transtasman cable to import power from Australia ? assumed to be generated from vast solar plants in the Outback. End of quote.

Australia has power supply problems of their own. Are they really going to poke power down a 2000km? extension cord to New Zealand?

What’s that Darryl? Quote.

While new technology in this country would mean increasingly localised solar power and improved battery storage would ease pressure, under a base case scenario the equivalent of 4.5 wind farms with 60 turbines each would need to be built each year by 2050. This would meet the forecast 60 terawatt hours of new generation needed to meet growth. *

This assumes the retirement of some existing power stations, including all thermal plants which was in line with the current government’s aims.

The report, done by Auckland firm Stakeholder Strategies based on work by government agencies and private research firms, warned that the right price signals needed to be sent. End of quote.

That is consultant speak code for price hikes for you and me and huge subsidies paid to wind farms. Quote.

”Investors might also be deterred if they are not confident about the stability of policy or regulatory settings.” End of quote.

Well, investors, take a look at the stability of policy impacts on Taranaki before you get out your chequebooks. Just sayin’. Quote.

New power plants could cost hundreds of millions of dollars but localised generation would help offset this. It was estimated 1.5 million homes would have solar systems by 2050. End of quote.

Ummmm … 2013 census figures:?1,549,890 homes in New Zealand. Extrapolating the growth rate out to 2050, there could be 2,200,000 homes and this report is expecting that approximately 67% of homes will have solar panels installed.

Darryl may have something to say about that as well. Quote.

”Electrifying New Zealand’s economy is arguably the biggest single economic and environmental opportunity facing the country. It also represents significant risk,” said the ‘Te Mauri Hiko – Energy Futures’ report.

It said New Zealand could not sit back and be a follower of technology and innovation.

The report assumed the affects of climate change would continue to be felt but catastrophic consequences could be avoided by engineering solutions and co-ordinated efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

Not only would there be a mass move to electric vehicles, aircraft and ships could also run on batteries. End of quote.

Why is Darryl banging his head on the wall? Quote.

Transpower chief executive Alison Andrew said technological improvements in EV and batteries, more efficient electricity use and more renewable generation from wind, solar and geothermal would avert brownouts or blackouts.[…]?End of quote.

* But have the report writers taken into account that the wind is not what it used to be? Quote.

Scientists say surface wind speeds across the planet have fallen by as much as 25% since the 1970s. The eerie phenomenon ? dubbed ?stilling? ? is believed to be a consequence of global warming, and may impact everything from agriculture to the liveability of our cities. It has taken more than a decade for scientists to get a handle on stilling, a term coined by Australian National University ecohydrologist Michael Roderick in 2007. End of quote.