Driving into a world of pain

Green Car Congress reports that new analysis suggests that automakers failing to meet 2021 fleet CO2 emissions compliance for passenger vehicles sold in the European Union (EU) could be fined more than ?14 billion (US$16 billion) in 2021.? Quote.

Legislators in the European Union (EU) are imposing a new passenger car fleet CO2 emissions target of 95 g/km, to be phased in during 2020, with 100% application in 2021 on Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedure (W.L.T.P.). New passenger car fleets that fail to meet compliance are set for potentially substantial fines in both 2020 and 2021. […]

Furthermore, with a 2021 target set at 114.9 g/km (as the 95 g/km New European Driving Cycle target is adjusted to an equivalent W.L.T.P. value), I.H.S. Markit forecasts that the sales-weighted passenger car fleet CO2 average will reach 122.9 g/km (W.L.T.P.). If this level of excess emission is unable to be curtailed, it could lead to a total of ?14 billion in excess emission premiums. […] End of quote.

What a wonderful way to collect more tax for the unaccountable EU which has never presented an audited set of accounts.? And who, ultimately, pays these EU boffins, you and me, the motorists in higher vehicle prices. Quote.

The analysis shows that 25 [manufacturers]?are on course to meet targets in 2020 and 2021, given developments and initiatives toward electrification and hybridization of their fleets.

Despite the continued collapse of the European diesel passenger car market, a technology that is generally helpful in CO2 abatement, the implementation of other impactful technologies, including LED lighting, thermal encapsulation, highly efficient alternators and other relevant technologies are proving to be helpful in offsetting some, it not all, of the diesel headwind effect in the 2020 and 2021 periods, according to I.H.S. Markit.

Several automakers are also observed as clearly pursuing, or leveraging a super credit strategy, designed to supplement engineering strategies and will help some achieve targets and avoid fines. In addition, some manufacturers may plan, under parent company umbrellas, to pool resources in order to avoid fines. End of quote.

Oh well, we’ll just ‘buy off’ the regulators with some fancy footwork and creative accounting. Shuffle some paperwork, print off a carbon credit certificate to hang on the wall and that will fix the global warming, for sure. Quote.

In comparison, 27 manufacturers could share the forecasted ?14 billion in 2021 penalties due to non-compliance. This, despite efforts to build a super credit strategy and investments into hybridization and electrification. These OEMs are not expected to stop work on compliance solutions and strategy, yet are expected to continue to struggle to bring forward the fruits of commensurate investment, leading to compelling product with enough demand at the correct time for compliance.

If they are unable to meet compliance targets in time, I.H.S. Markit forecasts that average fines for those not complying could reach ?624 per vehicle at the end of 2020, with a further ?190 increase in 2021 as a function of the shift to W.L.T.P. End of quote.

And we will pay even though we are not in the EU. Quote.

Once in 2021 and subject to full WLTP regulatory monitoring, only a seismic shift (over the baseline) in consumer demand for Battery Electric Vehicles and Petrol Hybrid Electric Vehicles will result in the full mitigation of EU28 fleet level excess emissions premiums. End of quote.

Oh dear, the buyers don’t want what they are selling … Quote.

Put simply, in 2021, the I.H.S. Markit baseline forecast struggles to envisage enough demand of the correct technology in order for the entire EU28 fleet to comply.[…] End of quote.

Blimey!? It’s 1984 already.? You WILL use the CORRECT technology and you will COMPLY.