98% of climate predictors agree

Image:OMICS International

There is an interesting website out there where you can bet on all manner of things that might or might not happen in the future. It is called PredictIt. Yes, I know that there is a slew of gambling sites where all manner of sports bets can be placed but this one has a slightly different take on things. Quote.

You make predictions by buying shares. The price of a share, between 1 and 99 cents, corresponds to the market?s estimate of the probability of an event taking place. Buy ?Yes? shares when the price is too low, when you think your fellow traders are underestimating this likelihood. Buy ?No? shares when you think they are too optimistic.

The value of your shares will change over time. You may decide to sell your shares later on, either to take some profit or stop a loss. Or, you can hold onto your shares until the market closes. At that point, if the event in the market has taken place, we?ll redeem ?Yes? shares at $1. If it has not, holders of ?No? shares will receive that $1. End quote.

The particular ‘market’ that caught my interest concerns the global temperature prediction for 2018.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/4598/Will-NASA-find-2018%E2%80%99s-global-average-temperature-highest-on-record

As you can see the ‘shares’ for a ‘Yes’ result are currently trading at 2c which indicates that 98% of punters think that the probability of the event happening is nil and have put their money on it.

What are these people betting on? quote.

The global temperature “Annual Average Anomaly” for 2018 shall be greater than 0.99 degrees Celsius, as rounded to the nearest hundredth of a degree, according to the first-published such data on NASA’s Global Climate Change website, available upon launch of this market at https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/. Should no such data be published on or before January 31, 2019, PredictIt may at its sole discretion continue to await its availability or select a suitable alternate source. End quote.

Unfortunately there does not seem to be a method for determining the total number of ?shareholders? in this contract, but clearly there are a significant number who think that the global temperature anomaly as measured and reported by NASA and reported at that site is not going to be 0.1?C higher than the last reported annual data.

Since the Greens are literally betting the farm on this scam and Labour have willingly climbed on board, will our Finance Minister invest a bit of our spare cash and make us all a quick profit?

All he has to do is spend up large on 2c shares, wait until 31 January 2019 get paid out at $1.? 98c profit in six weeks is a 4,800% return on 2c of capital or an annualised return of somewhere around 42,000%.

Kiwisaver can’t match that.

If they put the currently unused Kiwibuild budget cash into this great scheme, the $2 billion would be $100 billion almost overnight!? Think of how many houses they could build for that extra $98 billion.

Global warming is a sure bet, the science is settled, 97% of climate scientists agree it is happening, what’s not to lose?

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