The numbers will get you every time

So says Andrew Dickens in his recent NewstalkZB opinion piece. He mentions the zero road toll, the 1000 Kiwibuild houses and so on but he did not even mention the billion trees, the 4.5 windfarms per year, the 64,000 EVs, the reduction in child poverty or the amount spent on motels for the homeless. He concludes with something which clearly can not be correct. Can it? Quote.

It?s like our idealist politicians pluck numbers out of the air to make catchy slogans that are divorced from reality.

Andrew Dickens

The problem with numbers is that they don?t fudge.They?re definite. Exact. Numbers don?t lie. But people lie.People fudge. People lie about numbers. People fudge numbers. But numbers are the truth. 

Which is why any politician worth their weight in gold, which is an inexact number, will avoid them at any cost.

It?s a lesson this government fails to learn. The numbers have been causing all sorts of bother this parliamentary term.

This is obviously the very hard lesson Phil Twyford has learnt this week, as the numbers came to bite him on the bum. […]

Nothing wrong with running a social housing programme, but KiwiBuild was always to supplement the private market. There was always uncertainty as to what affordable means. But all that was debatable and defendable.

But as soon as Phil Twyford started putting numbers on it he drew a big target on his back. He promised 100,000 houses in 10 years and 1000 houses in the first year. And so the numbers have spoken and the project is failing and the government looks stupid. As Mr Twyford crumbled yesterday, his leader, the Prime Minister, was shining on the world stage. But not in the media in New Zealand. She must be ropable.

But this government does it every time. Julie Anne Genter announces road safety improvements but she ties it to a zero road toll slogan. Which will never happen. She will fail.

The Finance Minister is also fond of imposing numbers on fluid targets. His commitment to debt reduction and the 20 per cent target or instance. It?s meant for some accounting jiggery-pokery around core Crown Debt and various SOEs borrowing, while pretending not to be the government. Now there?s nothing out of the ordinary about that. Other governments have done it. But the imposition of such a definite, arbitrary target on the debt levels caught them out.

They?ve done it with immigration numbers where apparently we?re aiming for 30,000. Considering our skilled labour shortages that will never happen, again giving the government?s opponents ammunition.

It?s like our idealist politicians pluck numbers out of the air to make catchy slogans that are divorced from reality. 

I think there?s a political lesson here for this government. Watch the numbers or your number’s up. End quote.

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