We find the source of de Nile

Oops, don’t they know incandescent bulbs are bad for the planet?
Cover graphic for Te Mauri Hiko – Energy Futures

Last November, our History doctor, the Minister for Energy and Resources, Dr Megan Woods, announced in Question Time that all we needed was 4.5 windfarms per year. Quote.

That equates to a very achievable target of around the equivalent of 4.5 wind farms per year. End quote.


Whaleoil, and the commenters, have had a lot of fun in the intervening months discussing the 4.5 windfarms per year mantra. We have noted that the size of the windfarms was not revealed and that none are consented and none are under construction and the ones we already have are wearing out and there are all manner of issues with this projection. If you wish to catch up here is a sample:

Earlier this year, a politician was prompted to send the source document to Whaleoil, for which we are duly grateful.

The 4.5 windfarms per year came from a Transpower White Paper, released in June 2018, Te Mauri Hiko – Energy Futures. Page 24 has this: Quote.

The electricity supply base case scenario highlights what will be a significant challenge in meeting projected demand. The scenario estimates that over 60 TWh of new generation will be needed to meet estimated demand growth ? and the retirement of some existing power stations, including all thermal power stations ? by 2050.

To give an idea of the size of this challenge and to reinforce the need for significant investment in New Zealand?s energy future, 60 TWh of new generation equates to ~2 TWh per year ? roughly equivalent to 4.5 typically sized wind farms with ~ 60 turbines each. Additional supply requirements are estimated by projecting demand growth, increasing that forecast demand by ~20 per cent to ensure there is redundancy, and subtracting currently available generation that is assumed will be closed in 2050. End quote.

Te Mauri Hiko – Energy Futures

Page 20 tells us: Quote.

New Zealand?s electricity demand is estimated to more than double by 2050. Today, New Zealand uses ~40 TWh of electricity per annum, or 40,000 gigawatt hours (GWh). By 2030, demand is estimated to have increased to ~60 TWh and to reach ~90 TWh by 2050. End quote.

Te Mauri Hiko – Energy Futures

What is driving this growth? Primarily electric vehicles and industry as industry will no longer be able to dry the milk or make paper or run furnaces using fuel oil, coal or gas.

It is a totally avoidable problem, just keep on using petrol, diesel, oil, gas and coal.

We will look into the figures in more detail in future posts and look at the big problem which is oversupply in summer and undersupply in winter. This is something that Minister Woods claimed we had the technology to alleviate. This report does not support her optimism on that front.

Why “the source of de Nile”? Because Woods, Shaw, Ardern, Genter et al are totally in denial about the extent of the crisis that they are foisting upon New Zealanders.