A strategy with an “if” is a pipe dream

I have often pointed out that if you use the word “but” when saying that you believe in freedom of speech then you do not actually believe in freedom of speech. There are no “buts” in “freedom of speech” and, likewise, there are no “ifs” in a successful strategy. If your strategy says things like “if this happens and if this then happens” then you don’t have a plan or a strategy; what you have is a pipe dream.

A change of government before the election is 100% possible. A strategy from either NZ First or the National party could make it happen. The only two pieces on the board of this particular chess game are the leader of NZ First and the leader of National. It can be made a reality if both are open to the strategy as it is not dependent on a myriad of “ifs”.

Readers yesterday came up with many different strategies to get National back into government. I have summarised most of them below:

  • IF the New Conservative party can get over 2%
  • IF the National party decide to help them like they helped the ACT party
  • IF National can get 47% it can rule alone ( *it didn’t achieve this under Key or English)
  • IF the National party crash the NZ First vote
  • IF all the ex NZ First voters all then swap their allegiance to National
  • IF all the minor parties get under 2%
  • IF Winston Peters resigns and the NZ First party then collapses
  • IF Winston Peters doesn’t stand at the next election
  • IF the ACT party get more than one MP into parliament this time
  • IF National create a Blue-Green party as a ready made coalition partner for themselves
  • IF the new Blue-Green party takes votes from the Greens and Labour and not from National themselves
  • IF NZ First (unlike the Maori party that did just fine for two elections with National) doesn’t survive the next election.
  • IF National can steal enough of NZ First’s voters and IF the new Conservatives can get a seat and hit 2%
  • IF the NZ First vote is destroyed and IF those votes go to the New Conservatives
  • IF Winston Peters has destroyed his support base despite the pork barrel politics of Shane Jones
  • IF National have the policies and respect to entice back the voters who were disillusioned by their lack of concern for issues that New Zealanders were concerned about at the last election 
  • IF they crash the NZ First vote, IF they do a deal with the New Conservatives and IF the New Conservatives get 5% or win a seat
  • IF National manages to crash NZ First’s vote, IF Labour and the Greens do not have enough support between them to form a government and IF they cannot find a third coalition partner.
  • IF National rules out a coalition deal with NZ First entirely before the election and IF that makes NZ First voters run into the arms of National rather than strengthen their resolve or send them to other parties.

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