Dark days for National and Bridges

Poll Photo credit: Newshub.

According to the latest Newshub poll, it is a dark day for both National and Simon Bridges. National’s support has hit a new 12 year low going for the first time below Labour to 41.6% down 3.5%.

Recently readers speculated on what would happen if NZ First’s support was tanked. Some speculated that it would allow National to govern alone. NZ First is down to 2.9% but with Labour on 47.5% it is their party that benefited from the hit to NZ First. The Greens have also lost support and are currently holding on by their fingernails with only 5.1%

This makes it pretty clear that NZ First supporters and Green supporters, when they jump ship, jump ship to Labour not National.

NZ First’s support has tanked according to this poll to the benefit of Labour. Those who thought tanking NZ First support was a winning idea will need to rethink their strategy if they want National to win this coming election. At 41.6% National is a long way from Simon’s and some readers’ pipedream of governing alone. On these numbers the only party that is alone is National.

Labour on the other hand, on current polling with 47.5%, could possibly govern alone or with the Greens, assuming that the Green party manage to stay above 5%.

When it comes to the preferred Prime Minister stakes Judith Collins is burning Bridges. At 6.2% Judith’s star is on the rise. Simon Bridges has dropped to 5%, polling below Judith.

Photoshopped image credit: Boondecker

Preferred PM stakes are notoriously wonky as people won’t support a leader unless they believe that they can challenge the current prime minister. Simon Bridges has been a leader for over a year now; people have seen what he is like and his poll ratings have nose-dived.

If Judith Collins were the leader, I imagine that her ratings would seriously challenge Jacinda’s. No one doubts that Collins has what it takes to rattle Ardern in the house and to take the fight to her.

So how does all this translate to parliament seats? quote.

[…]Photo credit: Newshub

[…] on this poll we’d have 120 seats.
Labour gets exactly half 60 seats, and they need 61 to govern alone. National’s on 53, and we assume they would do a deal in Epsom, giving ACT one seat.d quote.

Newshub end quote.apart from ACT

National at 41.6% and with no friends apart from ACT cannot form a government. Labour with the Greens can win and there is even the possibility of Labour governing alone if they can maintain this level of popularity. A Labour-Green coalition would be the worst of all possible scenarios. National’s next leader has to be able to find a coalition partner that will get them over the line and the mythical blue-green party isn’t it. quote.

The silver lining for Bridges in all this is that if National had stayed up in the polls then there would be more of a push for potential leadership candidates to take over or they would miss out on the opportunity to become prime minister. With this sorry result who is going to want to take the poisoned chalice from him?

If Simon Bridges is confident in his leadership, he should release National’s internal polling in full (not the abridged version) to caucus and prove this latest poll wrong.