Let’s not panic about the poll

To say that the latest Newshub poll is disastrous for National, with ‘dark days’ ahead, is nothing more than left-wing hype. Watching Tova O’Brien announce the poll results with undisguised glee only means that it is now impossible to even think for one second that the media in this country is not politically biased.

It is also best to remember that the poll was taken in January, but held over until now. This means that the annual Kiwibuild targets had not been discarded yet, Waitangi hadn’t happened, and the prime minister had been AWOL for weeks.

It is funny really when you think that her popularity has never been higher than when she has been absent for a while. It also meant that there were no gaffes or incompetencies on show to make her look as stupid as she really is.

Poll Photo credit: Newshub.

Polls taken at this time of year often favour the government, as there is little opportunity for the opposition to gain any traction.

It is also worth remembering that Labour, under Andrew Little was on 21% popularity 9 weeks before the last election, before Jacinda took over. Compared to that, 41.6% is a very good result.

Come to think of it, since when has a result in the 40s ever been a bad result?


The poll has Labour at 47.5 per cent (up 4.9 per cent), ahead of National at 41.6 per cent (down 3.5 per cent). The Greens sit at 5.1 per cent and NZ First at 2.9 per cent.

On these numbers Labour and the Greens could govern alone. Indeed, with 60 seats, Labour would only be one seat off governing completely alone, and could do so if the Greens dropped below the 5 per cent threshold. NZ First would not be in Parliament. end quote.

We have been told that National cannot make it into government without friends and they could not possibly govern alone, yet it seems theoretically possible that Labour could govern alone if this poll is an accurate prediction of the future state of parliament.quote.

The preferred prime minister poll had Collins ahead of National leader Bridges with 6.2 per cent to Bridges’ 5.0 per cent. Ardern was far ahead of the rest of the pack at 41.8 per cent.

Stuff end quote.

There is no doubt, however, that this is bad news for Simon Bridges and the real possibility of a National leadership coup looms large before too long. National has to get this right though, because if the next leader fails at the 2020 election, then National will have had 3 leaders in 3 years, (probably 4 in fact), which will make Labour’s last stint in opposition look positively stable.

I have no idea what will happen with the National leadership, but Tova O’Brien has done a brilliant job of ending Simon Bridges’ career. I doubt if he can come back from this.

In the meantime, National still has 41.6% support, which Labour would have killed for at any time in the last 10 years, and best of all, it looks as if Winston Peters and NZ First will be relegated to the annals of history for good this time.

So there is a silver lining after all.