Oh dear, 2018 wasn’t the hottest eva – but next year could be …

Good old TVNZ, still beating the dead horse climate alarmism meme. 2018 was only the fourth hottest since records began, even with all the historical readjustments, data homogenisation, urban heat island effects etc, they still could not gerrymander a “hottest eva” record headline. Never mind, there is always next year as the models say it will get worse. Quote.

While 2018 was the fourth-warmest year on record, British meteorologists are predicting the next five years will be much hotter, maybe even record-breaking.

End quote.

My goodness, they have even broken away from the ‘might be’ and ‘may be‘ qualifiers and ventured into the definite ‘will be‘ territory. And with a five year time frame, it will be easy to check. Quote.

Two US agencies, the United Kingdom Met Office and the World Meteorological Organisation analysed global temperatures in slightly different ways, but each came to the same conclusion: 2018 was the fourth-warmest year on record behind 2016, 2015 and 2017.

The US government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said 2018’s average temperature was 58.42 degrees (14.69 Celsius), which is 1.42 degrees (0.79 Celsius) warmer than the 20th century average. Much of Europe had its warmest years on record. Records go back to 1880.

NASA and NOAA climate scientists said even though 2018 was a tad cooler than the three previous years that’s mostly due to random weather variations. End quote.

Oh, so we are allowed random weather variations when it gets cooler but warmer is always man-made CO2 induced global warming. Glad we cleared that up. Quote.

“Never mind the little wiggles from year to year. The trend is going relentlessly up, and it will continue to do so,” Potsdam Institute climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf said in an email. “Those who live in denial of this fact are in denial of physics.”

Using computer simulations, the British weather office forecasts that the next five years will average somewhere between 58.51 and 59.49 degrees (14.73 to 15.27 Celsius). That would be warmer than the last four years. […] End quote.

TVNZ


What if we have peaked? Turned a corner and are on the way down again? Is it a possibility? And anyone who has lived in the UK recently knows how incredibly bad the long term UK Met Office predictions have turned out to be.

TVNZ quoted NOAA so let’s have a look at their data.

CO2 (we are told) heats up the atmosphere and we know that the CO2 levels are steadily increasing year on year. The satellites measure temperatures accurately all over the globe without having to extrapolate to fill in all the missing data as happens with the ground based stations. Thus the lower troposphere measurements should be a pretty accurate reflection of what is happening. This from NOAA.

NOAA

Oh wow, that looks bad. “The trend is going relentlessly up, and it will continue to do so,” (except for the last two years.)

However, note the scale. -0.4 to +0.6 ?C or 1 degree. Let’s try another scale …

NOAA

Exactly the same data with a scale of -10 to +11 ?C or 21 degrees. It is a tad difficult to read that so you will have to trust me.

A 21 ?C daily temperature range is not unheard of in NZ. So now the data is plotted on a ‘real world’ scale graph that we can relate to. Look how scary the temperature change over time is now.

But, of course, that does not fit the narrative. Not at all scary enough.

What about NZ? 2018 was second equal with 1998. 2016 was the hottest. In spite of all the extra CO2, the temperature last year was no hotter than 20 years ago.

Hmmm….

Disclaimer: WH is NOT a ‘climate denier’. There is not a single instance in his life when WH has denied the climate. Grizzled about the weather – yes, often, but never, ever denied climate.

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