It’s ‘the economy, stupid’: Trump is winning

Bill Clinton’s famous campaign slogan, “the economy, stupid”, reminded American voters that, when all was said and done, having a job and money in your pocket mattered more to the hoi polloi than any Washington political shenanigans. Voters may have solidly approved of George H W Bush’s handling of the first Iraq war, but the early 90s recession focused their minds and votes rather more sharply.

The Democrats have now forgotten that lesson at their peril. While the Democrats tie themselves in ever-sillier knots, trying to take down Trump, voters are taking far more notice of America’s booming economy. quote.

Most Americans remain confident about the U.S. economy and in their own financial situation, and more now give President Trump’s policies credit for a strong economy than did so last year.

Seven in 10 Americans say the economy is in good shape, including a quarter who say it is very good. Nearly all Republicans and most Democrats and independents share this view. end quote.

What’s more, they’re giving more and more credit for the good times to Trump. The economic good fortune is also benefiting Trump’s political fortunes overall. quote.

Forty-one percent of those who say the economy is good say Mr. Trump’s policies are mostly responsible, up from 32% at the beginning of 2018. Republicans give the president relatively more credit for the economy than Democrats do.

Forty-one percent of Americans approve of how Mr. Trump is handling his job as president. end quote.

This is roughly the same approval that most recent American presidents were at, at the same point in their presidency. Ronald Reagan, in fact, was polling lower by the third year of his first term. Trump’s approval is almost certain to improve, especially if the American economy remains strong.

Across particular measures, the economy is the president’s strongest: 50% of Americans approve of how he’s handling the economy. In contrast, more Americans disapprove of his handling of immigration, foreign policy, and trade with other countries […]

Looking ahead, Americans are more positive about the market than they were a few months ago, despite recent fluctuations. Fifty-six percent now say they are optimistic about the stock market over the next twelve months, up from 49% in January. end quote.

Of course, some are determined not to see any good in the Trump presidency. quote.

There is partisan division about where the economy goes from here. Thirty-seven percent of Americans think the economy is getting better, including 71% of Republicans, but just 11% of Democrats agree. end quote.

Trump’s biggest risk is his strategy of standing up to China on its economic chicanery. quote.

Despite the optimism, Americans are wary of a possible trade war with China and its potential impact on the economy. Few think the U.S. will emerge the clear cut winner in any such conflict.

Few think the tariffs on Chinese imports will be good for the U.S. economy in the short term. More think they will make it worse. Republicans are more optimistic than Democrats. end quotes.

Call it “transactional voting” if you will, but the fact remains that most voters are pretty pragmatic folk. By necessity. It’s all very well to obsess about “climate change” and open borders from the luxury of elite compounds. Most people just want to pay the bills and put food on the table. Trump is winning that battle, while Democrats doom themselves to irrelevance with their endless gibbering about impeachment.

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