More Settled Science

The new ‘evil’ is jet contrails. They are going to cook us all. Much worse than CO2 etc etc yadda yadda

The aviation industry is even worse for climate change than previously thought, with a new study revealing the damage being done by otherwise harmless contrails.

They’re so bad, German researchers say, they’re responsible for more warming than all aviation carbon emissions ever made – from the day the Wright brothers flew their first plane until now.

“Lots of people talk about the need to stop air traffic increasing all the time, but this is not taken that seriously,” co-author Ulrike Burkhardt told New Scientist.

Aviation accounts for about 5 percent of the world’s carbon emissions. Contrails – a mix of water vapour and impurities from the plane’s engine left behind in the cool upper atmosphere – contribute to warming by trapping in more heat than they reflect back into space, a process known as radiative forcing.

The researchers modelled the effect contrails would have up until the year 2050, when the skies are expected to be four times busier than they are already. While cleaner fuels will help keep aviation’s impact on temperatures in check, the sheer amount of cloud cover formed by contrails will wipe out any gains. […]


Modelled …. oh right … we can stop reading right there.

Because …

After 9/11 airplanes were grounded for three days so some scientists investigated what effect the lack of contrails had on temperatures. The temperature went up without contrails.

About a year after the attacks, Andrew Carleton, David Travis, a geographer at the University of Wisconsin, and another colleague argued in a paper that thin clouds created by contrails reduce the range of temperatures. By contributing to cloud cover during the day, they reflect solar energy that would otherwise have reached the earth’s surface. At night, they trap warmth that would otherwise have escaped.

The effect during the three days that flights were grounded was strongest in populated regions where air traffic was normally densest. The increase in range came to about two degrees Celsius.

Other studies have tended to back up the research. In 2011, British scientists wrote that an air raid in May 1944 involving over 1,400 aircraft measurably lowered daytime temperatures in England. In that case, the situation was the reverse of 9/11 – large-scale air travel was unknown, and dense concentrations of large planes were rare. […]


But the models predict doom so, let’s print that.