National Still Can’t Win

National may be showing as the biggest party in the latest ONE NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll, but it still can’t win based on the percentages shown.

Seats in Parliament based on 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll results 

National Party – 57
Labour Party – 55
Green Party – 7
ACT Party – 1 (assuming it wins one electorate seat)

[…] Preferred PM

– Jacinda Ardern: 41% (Down 4%)
– Judith Collins: 6% (Steady)
– Simon Bridges: 6% (Up 1%)
– Winston Peters: 2% (Down 3%)

[…] Economic outlook

Optimism 32% (Down 2%) 
Pessimism 41% (Up 3%)

The Smartypants in National’s caucus want to condemn us all to a Labour/Greens government because they think that National should just take a loss at the next election and then replace Bridges.

Then there are those who cannot add, like Hamish Price. With maths skills like his, he could be an economics advisor for Labour.

These numbers also show that Winston can, and he will, run the argument that if they’ve ruled out working with him then they definitely can’t win and so people need to vote NZ First to keep the Greens in check.

Even Bridges’ and Bennett’s strategy of making sure both the Green party and NZ First crash out is very unlikely to happen and assumes that neither of those parties will campaign at all. Whilst National would pick up some votes that way, it is by no means guaranteed. But even then it still wouldn’t get them there.
If the Green vote collapsed it would go to Labour. Any wasted vote would be split between National and Labour but Labour would already have enough.

If anyone still thinks that National can win in their own right then they are one of the few who really believe that Simon Bridges can do what John Key never could… despite the fact that Key was never, ever as low as 6 percent in the Preferred PM stakes.