To Lobby or Not to Lobby

By Owen Jennings

You either believe in democracy or you don’t. If you do you will accept that lobbying is an essential ingredient in the mix of factors that ensure a robust democracy.  It may be that on some issues lobbying is akin to the proverbial “pushing water uphill into a headwind”, but that should never be an excuse for not participating in the process. 

The Zero Carbon Bill is at Select Committee and is open for submissions.  They close on the 16th of July – just a few days away.

Oilers need to act.

NZIER has done some modelling (largely all based on just one paper published in 2018) that shows massive negative impacts on our economy.  Implementing the Bill could lead to a disastrous $100 billion fall in GDP by 2050, impacting severely on the poorest people in the economy.  

It foresees a drop in exports, a 140% increase in trees (note log prices are down dramatically as northern hemisphere spruce has become available to the Chinese), and huge increases in energy prices; household incomes will be down, unemployment will increase, real wages will fall substantially and much more.

The modelling suggests that the negative effects do not change much whether the rest of the world takes strong or weak climate change action.

It then says it cannot predict what might happen if all the claims of catastrophic weather were to occur.  It is silent on what might happen if no catastrophic events occur – the most likely scenario given that there have been no adverse effects from the first degree of warming. 

So we pull our pants down and take a huge hit.  The rest of the world does nothing or little and there are no major weather effects so they remain in good shape. Our competitiveness is shot to pieces.  Greece will look like a paradise compared to our position. It’s a bizarre outlook. No other single piece of legislation in our history will have such a dramatic and damaging effect.

What can Oilers do?  What should Oilers do?

Go to https://www.parliament.nz/en/pb/sc/make-a-submission/document/52SCEN_SCF_BILL_87861/climate-change-response-zero-carbon-amendment-bill and follow instructions.

What to say?

  1. You oppose the Bill becoming law.
  2. You do so because of the following factors below:   (choose one or more and put it in your own words) 
  3. Use Climate-Science-March20171.pdf
  4. Use Microsoft Word – Climate Science Update, Feb 08, for information, ideas, graphs etc.

A) Public policy involving projected massive damage to the New Zealand economy should not be made on the basis of climate models that are problematic.  Even the strongest advocates of the accuracy of the models admit they are not accurate e.g. Dr Gavin Schmidt, IPCC reports, etc

Highly acclaimed scientists like Judith Curry, Roger Pielke, John Christy and Roy Spencer have produced well-researched papers pointing out the serious divergence between predictions of temperature rise and actual and why they have occurred.

B) Temperatures have risen by 0.7 to 1.0 degree C in the last 50 – 70 years depending on location, recording methods, timing, start dates etc.  There is no evidence that this temperature rise has had any detrimental effects on the weather. Why should another degree cause “catastrophic” conditions?

C) Almost all record of weather events since so-called warming began, show positive gains, improvements and fewer catastrophes.

D) Increases in CO2 have been highly beneficial to the world’s vegetation and crop outputs, helping combat hunger.

E) If New Zealand, which produces less than 0.2% of the world’s so-called man made CO2 emissions, takes drastic action and few other countries do, the detriment will be hugely exacerbated. We will become even more uncompetitive as exporters in world markets that we are reliant on more than most other countries.

F) The work output of the IPCC is largely political rather than scientific.  Its very raison d’etre was not to investigate climate changes in an unbiased manner but to prove the existing meme.  Funds have been made available to scientists who shout the loudest about problems arising from warming – even bizarre claims totally unrelated to weather or climate, while scientists wanting to offer theories and ideas in opposition have been closed down, under-funded, derided, squeezed out of their jobs etc. 

G) Multiple claims made over the last 50 years have not been validated.  Polar bears extinct, arctic ice disappearing, falling food production, climate refugees in NZ, no more snow, etc.

  • Lobby MPs, especially your own MP, and focus on NZ First and National MP’s.
  • Ask them to supply ironclad proof that rising CO2 is causing warming. 
  • Ask them to respond to your submission with detailed answers. 
  • Tell them your vote and those of your family and friends swings on the answer.
  • Don’t give up.  Fight it – don’t just talk about it. Persistence wins even when the odds are stacked against you.  Just ask Kane Williamson.  
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