Why no Cunliffe stocks at iPredict?

The leadership race is off inside Labour and iPredict is carrying stocks to buy or sell.

There is one problem though…no David Cunliffe…but is carrying stocks for people not even in the race.

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Does Matthew Hooton use iPredict to promote his mates?

Everyone knows corporate whore Matthew Hooton is as cunning as a sh*thouse rat and has been very successful in taking large sums of money of people who want politicians lobbied.

What is not so well known is how Hooton uses iPredict to promote his mates in parliament.

Last week it was immediately putting the socially inept Paul Goldsmith up as a minister, even though Goldsmith is as popular with his peers as Nikki Kaye is with hers.

Promoting Goldsmith may help the Hooton faction, but it would alienate all Paul?s benchmates who think he has so little empathy the way for him to gift ACT Epsom is to campaign more.? Read more »

Insider trading tip: Buy Buy Buy




Labour Party Insider Trading

iPredict, being a (fairly) pure market mechanism, has a pretty good track record in predicting political outcomes.

An analysis?on the site today?has some interesting evidence that our lefty mates, no friends of the market economy and fierce opponents of capitalism and gambling, may not be too averse to having a punt on a sure thing when they are in the know – behaviour that would get them a term in the slammer (or a smack on the wrist with a wet bus ticket) if they were caught in the real world.

“The first observation to make is this: key stocks concerning Shearer?s leadership didn?t start reacting to?media coverage?on November 10th, but a day earlier on?November 9th. The first stock to move were ?David Shearer to depart as Leader of the Labour Party in 2013? which rose from 32% to a high of 57% before settling at around 46%.???Shearer to be Prime Minister before 2015? experienced a similar trading pattern, falling from 37% to 26% before settling on 28%. These are very sharp movements.

The most likely explanation for this is insider trading by sources within media circles or the Labour Party.”

What is the trading volume?

? Stuff.co.nz?

Stuff is now repeating Matthew Hooton’s spin…that will be why he invoices his clients saying control of media and blogs – $xx,xxx.00

Here is the wording from Hooton’s press release today:

Act Leader and Epsom MP John Banks, and his colleague National MP Maurice Williamson, are both expected to be stood down as ministers by 15 May, with Mr Banks picked to be sacked or resign altogether before Budget Day on 24 May, according to the 6800 registered traders on?www.iPredict.co.nz.

The New Zealand online predictions market is already offering 20 stocks on issues related to the growing scandal involving political donations from Megaupload founder Kim Dotcom, who is? facing extradition to the United States on racketeering, money laundering and copyright charges.? Other stocks will be added as events unfold.

Here is what Stuff repeated:

Online predictions market iPredict has ACT leader John Banks and National MP Maurice Williamson both being stood down as ministers by May 15, with Banks expected to be sacked or resign altogether by Budget day, May 24.

This is according to the 6800 registered traders on the site which buys and sells ”stocks” in future economic and political events.

IPredict is offering 20 stocks on issues relating to the growing scandal involving political donations from Megaupload founder Kim Dotcom, who is facing extradition to the United States.

A bit like leaving out undecideds when reporting on a poll iPredict leaves out volumes….one of their stocks, for a by-election in?Epsom,?has had zero trading today.

Someone in the MSM should stop just repeating iPredict’s and Matthew Hooton’s shameless shilling press releases and start asking what is the trading volume and does the trading volume impact the accuracy of the market?

More to the point they should ask how much Matthew Hooton benefits from shilling for iPredict.

You know you?re in trouble when: The bookies open a contract on you

iPredict has a series of stocks now on the ACC Scandal.

Yesterday The Standard gloatingly claimed “You know you?re in trouble when: The bookies open a contract on you“.

Whoopsy….look who is in trouble now:

Another interesting tock is?the?one on Simon Lusk as the leaker…Remember Trevor Mallard, Grant Robertson and Andrew Little have all suggested he was the leaker.

Well the wisdom of the crowds suggests that they are wrong. I wonder if they have the guts to apologise to the house and to Simon Lusk?

Who leaked the results?

I have known for a few days the results of the key electorates. I shouldn’t have. The people who told me were extremely low level electorate based people as well, meaning the leaks were very widespread. I even had journalists contacting me on Thursday asking for comments on numbers in various electorates, so even they knew the numbers, especially in Waitakere. Certainly the Herald knew enough to run a story on Friday morning before any other news outlet.

The results in Waitakere, Christchurch Central, Auckland Central and Waimakariri were widely known well before 2pm when the Electoral Commission released them.

The question is though, who leaked them. Some have even made?money?off the leaking of results, most notably in North Shore.

I think the?Electoral?Commission needs to investigate. They certainly should be asking iPredict to provide details of the trades for North Shore and any other electorates with similar trading spikes. In fact iPredict should volunteer the information lest they be accused of running shonky, corrupt and manipulated market.


iPredict launches stock for Labour/Green gap

iPredict has a launched a stock so people can invest ?in whether or not the?Labour party vote to exceed Green party vote by at least 10 points in the 2011 General Election.

Has Labour been spending like a drunken sailor on iPredict?

It would seem so. iPredict used the headline Manipulation! to describe attempts to pump Labour’s stocks on iPredict.

Matthew Hooton is much more blunt outright blaming Labour for the market manipulation.

While only the administrator can know who is trading, the pattern strongly suggests to me that?either pro-Labour activists or even the Labour Party itself were behind the effort.

A Labour connection also seems likely given that the?attempted?Gordon Gekko?clearly had no understanding of how markets worked and that such attempts are doomed to failure.? Buying up Goff to a price the rest of the market regards as unrealistic just provides greater profit opportunities for others, which leads to a market correction.

Even better is that the failed attempt to manipulate the market means investors and market observers (including the media and political commentators)?can have even more confidence?in the pricing of the relevant stocks, which now appear to have settled back at?around?90c for John Key?and around?10c for Phil Goff.? What we now need is for National activists?to get into the game (they will fail too,?but their failed attempts will further help improve market accuracy).

Many thousands of dollars have been traded in the failed manipulation attempt and I sincerely hope this has not come out of Labour’s campaign funds.? That’s not what people?give money to their party for.? No doubt the media will be asking Phil Goff’s office and Labour HQ if they knew anything about today’s stunt.

Of course Labour isn’t averse to market manipulations having done it before to tank Air New Zealand stocks so they could buy it back at a bargain basement price.

iPredict running stock on Feeley’s future

iPredict has?launched?a stock on the future of Five Finger’s Feeley.